Play Money

PlayMoney

Question	Probability
Will There be a rate cut by the fed in Jan 2025?	50%	¤500
Who will raise a round first?	57% daytona.io	¤2,217
Will Truman Show 2 be announced as in production by the end of 2027?	50%	¤669
Is Shauni Rae Kerkhoff the January 6 pipe bomber?	50%	¤500
Will Zohran Mamdani appear on The Adam Friedland Show by the end of 2026?	50%	¤552
will maryland redistrict by the end of 2026?	50%	¤554
Will the USA catch more than 1600 metric tons of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna in 2025?	50%	¤555
will mamdani go on rogan by the end of 2026?	50%	¤500
Will someone reach 1B mana profit on Manifold before EOY 2027?	50%	¤500
Will Trump intervene or make public statements supporting Johnny Somali's release by the end of 2026?	50%	¤500
Will the world series go to game 7 in 2026?	50%	¤500
Will Trump rename USTRANSCOM by the end of 2027?	79%	¤1,200
Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of September 2026?	50%	¤571
Will New Jersey Residents be able to stake any crypto on Coinbase at the end of 2026?	50%	¤500
Will Kraken release a credit or debit card by the end of 2027?	50%	¤500
Will a player win a Super Smash Bros Melee major using a digital / leverless controller before January 1st 2028?	50%	¤500
Will Anthony Weiner go on Joe Rogan by the end of 2026?	50%	¤500
Will Darksiders 4 release before the end of 2027?	50%	¤551
will destiny be charged or indicted by the federal government by the end of 2026?	40%	¤-2,147,483,098
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 be related to the Palestine conflict?	40%	¤-2,147,480,597
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?	40%	¤-2,147,483,098
Will there be a Polymarket Credit or Debit card released to at least some users by the end of 2026?	40%	¤-2,147,483,098
Will there be a Polymarket Credit or Debit card released to at least some users by the end of 2027?	40%	¤-2,147,483,098
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Xi Jinping's succession be a nonviolent transition of power by my judgement?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will the United States have a second incorporated unorganized territory by the end of 2028?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Snap be acquired by any company by the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will there be at least one peer-reviewed study correlating AI usage with increased mental illness by end of 2028?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will there be a Crying of Lot 49 movie announced as in production by the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Pitchfork directly publish a music album by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Pitchfork directly publish a music album by the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will either party use the Nuclear Option in 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Freddie vs Jason 3 be announced as in production by the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Alien vs Predator 3 be announced as in production by the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Julie Andrews make it to 95?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will I be able to take a waymo between two points in manhattan by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will I be able to take a waymo between manhattan and any other state or borough by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 6th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,099
Will Apu have a speaking appearance in the Simpsons again by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Waymo be found at-fault in a vehicle death by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will the F-47 plane have at least one confirmed test flight by the end of 2028?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will a SR-21 Son of Blackbird plane be confirmed in test flights by the USA by the end of 2028?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Kino Casino break up before the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will there be an official Lego model of a Tesla sold before 2029?	50%	¤-2,147,482,998
Will Pam Bondi be disbarred in at least one state by the end of 2030?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Will Trump rename Pituffik Space Base to Thule Air Base by the end of 2027?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148
Comey found guilty by the end of 2026?	50%	¤-2,147,483,148

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