PlayMoney
QuestionProbability
User
Will Trump announce a travel ban for americans to a new country by the end of April?
50%
¤500
Will Eric Adams be mayor of NYC when grok 3 releases?
83%
¤1,100
Will a company IPO on the NYSE in April?
58%
¤650
Will Elon unfollow Noahpinion by the end of April?
50%
¤500
Will there be 5 or more scorigamis in the 2025-2026 NFL season and Super Bowl?
50%
¤500
Will there be a weird breakout dance scene in Severance Season 2?
58%
¤1,300
Will Gwern attend Manifest 2025?
50%
¤500
Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth?
42%
¤650
Person at McDonalds who tipped off police about Luigi Mangione gets the reward money by June
22%
¤1,501
NATO raises defence spending target above 2% GDP by July 2025
59%
¤1,500
Will Trump sell 25% or more of his Truth Social $DJT shares by the end of June 2025?
54%
¤750
Will 5000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of June 2025?
50%
¤500
Will Elon Musk do the Roman Salute at another public event before the end of June 2025?
50%
¤500
Will Safe Superintelligence have more than 100 employees by mid-2025?
45%
¤100
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of Avi Schiffman's Friend AI device before the end of June 2025?
26%
¤1,200
Will Elon Musk post a tweet criticizing the choice of the next pope within a month of it being announce?
69%
¤900
Will I be able to buy at least one booster pack of Prismatic Evolutions at or below MSRP by July 17, 2025?
58%
¤650
How long will it be until I next see a stranger walking down the street yelling slurs into their phone?
64% Two weeks to a month
¤650
Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July?
15%
¤1,500
Will multiple Teslas be featured in a Trump Motorcade by the end of July?
50%
¤500
DeepMind wins IMO Gold in 2025
50%
¤1,000
Will NYC still charge congestion pricing specifically from northern Manhattan to lower Manhattan at the end of August?
65%
¤750
Will the Patriots announce a new head coach before Israel and Hamas announce a ceasefire deal?
50%
¤500
Continuous Hex Theorem
60%
¤600
Will I be employed by my current company for at least 1 full year?
50%
¤500
Will @case spend more than $1000 on magic cards & accessories in the next year?
55%
¤1,851
Will Bitcoin BTC reach $111,111 by 11/11/25?
50%
¤527
Will Google’s share of the U.S. search ad market drop below 50% in 2025?
56%
¤900
Will Ukraine and the US sign the rare earths deal by June 2025 ?
35%
¤750
Will the first games in Pokemon's tenth generation be released in 2025?
4%
¤2,650
When will OpenAI have its next funding round?
34% Q2 2025
¤760
Will Whatifalthist have an arrest record by the end of 2025?
50%
¤500
Will I be able to log into my Google keep at the end of 2025?
58%
¤2,500
100x decrease in inference cost by 2026?
42%
¤550
Will there be public consensus that Adrian Dittman is directly controlled or associated with Elon Musk by end of 2025?
52%
¤575
Will playmoney.dev raise venture capital in 2025?
29%
¤1,750
Will ¤ be purchasable in USD at some point in 2025?
67%
¤1,710
Will bird flu be added to the WHO's list of emergencies in 2025?
59%
¤725
Will a bot be on top of the traders leaderboard at any point in 2025?
49%
¤980
Will playmoney.dev raise *capital* from its members in 2025?
55%
¤1,700
Bird Flu pandemic this year?
29%
¤1,981
Will the California AI regulation bill (SB 1047) or a similar model-level regulation be adopted by at least three other U.S. states by 2026?
41%
¤250
Will Squid Game season 3 premiere in 2025?
45%
¤725
Polymarket ordered to shut down by US by end 2025
35%
¤855
Valve announces and sells new hardware in 2025
50%
¤1,160
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2025?
38%
¤1,150
Will Taylor Swift get engaged in 2025?
36%
¤1,086
Kalshi ordered to shut down by US by end 2025
45%
¤1,275
Manifold ordered to shut down by US by end 2025
23%
¤1,208
Will I see an aurora by EOY 2025?
42%
¤650

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